Real Truth Behind the Economy Under Trump. The Real Impact of the Republican Tax Cut

SPIN V TRUTH:  ECONOMY EDITION

The Real Truth Behind the Economy Under Trump.  The Impact of the Republican Tax Cut ...and Lies.

When Republicans delivered $1.5 trillion in tax cuts last December and slashed the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent, they said it would come with a big wage boost for American workers. Except it hasn’t.

When the Bloomberg was published showing private data from PayScale’s wage index swept across Twitter. It shows a drop-in wages in the second quarter of 2018. While wages have risen by 12.9 percent overall since 2006, wages adjusted for inflation (so-called “real wages”) have actually fallen by 9.3 percent.

And between the first and second quarters of 2018 — after the tax cuts were enacted — real wages fell by 1.8 percent.

CORPORATE PROFITS vs. WAGES

NEED WE SAY MORE? 

Spin v Truth, 6th Congressional District edition

SPIN V TRUTH:  6^th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT EDITION

Debunking Roskam’s Whoppers about the Tax Bill
By Sean Casten

[This series of Tweets came out shortly after the Casten/Roskam debate in July – but it is still MUST READ for anyone who missed it.  See also some of Sean’s other writings concerning responsible financial management of our country:  “Bringing Fairness and Rationality to Our Tax Code” and “We Need a National Balance Sheet”.  Use the information when you’re canvassing in support of Sean! – ed.]

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In my debate with @PeterRoskam earlier this week he told some real whoppers about taxes and the impact of his tax bill on the district. They are talking points completely unbuttressed by facts. But facts matter. So here's a thread...

2/First, he repeated his line that the "average median" family in #IL06 earns $135K/year. This is wrong in three really important ways.

3/ (a) The average family in #IL06 earns $125K. (b) The median family in #IL06 earns$97K. (c) "average median" isn't a thing. https://www.census.gov/mycd/?st=17&cd=06 … #factsmatter #mathisreal

4/ Now since we're asking what impact @PeterRoskam's tax bill has on #IL06, the relevant number is the median, since that's the number that applies to a typical person in the middle of the income zone in the district. So $97K is the right number

5/ But since @PeterRoskam's tax bill is overwhelmingly skewed to benefit the wealthy, it's materially significant that he decided to simply assume that the representative family in the district is earning $40K more than they actually are.

6/ But it gets worse. @PeterRoskam - like all the GOP shills - uses the Tax Foundation to do their assessment of of the impact of the tax bill. They are a hack, right wing group that is (if it's possible) worse at economics than Peter.

7/ As Nobel prize winner @paulkrugman has pointed out many times. https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/11/21/tax-cuts-growth-and-leprechauns/ … https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/tax-cuts-and-the-trade-deficit/ … https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/10/25/trumps-700-billion-foreign-aid-program/ … (among others)

8/ (BTW - note that third Krugman link where he pointed out that 35% of US equities are owned by foreigners, so giving a tax cut to US corps sends money out of America.  This is the point I made at the debate which doesn't get nearly enough attention)

9/ Among many problems with the Tax Foundation model is that they assumed that if you cut taxes for corporates, corps would raise salaries. That is a ginormous assumption. And dead wrong - real wages are down 1.8% since the bill was passed.

10/ So @PeterRoskam assumed you'd get a raise from his tax bill and therefore have more money. It's like assuming your dog is a leprechaun who can give you his gold. It makes your financial math easier, but it's completely stupid.

11/ So @PeterRoskam uses a made up math term "average median" and gives everyone in the district a $40K raise to calculate his tax savings. Basically, he's saying "5 plus minus 3 equals 19". Total gobbledegook. But even on his own #newmath, the numbers don't work

12/ Let's go back to the Tax Foundation. Here's their calculator. Go log in. Enter the "average median leprechaun my pretty pony" #IL06 income of $135K and 2 kids. You get the $4600 savings he uses.

13/ But as you fill out that form, notice that you have to enter whether you want to itemize or take the standard deduction. You only have one choice. THEIR MODEL IS ASSUMING THE SAME APPROACH IN 2017 AND 2018.

14/ This matters because the tax bill doubled the standard deduction. The family here had an incentive to itemize in 2017, but the tax foundation model assumes they didn't. e.g., the model assumes you overpaid in 2017, then uses that to calculate your savings in 2018.

15/ Also, notice that the model doesn't allow you to enter your SALT taxes. #IL06 has the 12 highest SALT tax of any congressional district in the country. The cap on SALT deductions almost certainly works to your disadvantage, but that's not included.

16/ So to review: @PeterRoskam's estimated tax savings depend on (a) inflated income, (b) imaginary math terms, (c) tax models that have been debunked by Nobel prize winners and (d) assumptions that tax payers are too dumb to itemize in 2017.

17/ All of those things overstate the savings. And while without having access to all his models, I can't say exactly how much he's overstated the savings to folks in #IL06.  But I'm willing to guess its close to 100%.

18/ So here's my challenge to @PeterRoskam. Post a spreadsheet with your calculations. Use actual income data from #IL06. Include SALT. Show your work. Give sufficient detail that we can check your math. Until then, stop making up numbers.  People's wealth is at stake. /fin

Spin v Truth, County Board Edition - Bate & Switch

SPIN V TRUTH:  COUNTY BOARD D2 EDITION

THE DuPage COUNTY SHELL GAME OF MISUSING RTA TAXES IMPROPERLY
Source:  Liz Chaplin's Blog

For years, the republican DuPage County Board has boasted that property taxes have not been raised with the indication they have been fiscally responsible.  The truth is the county has used funds from RTA taxes and Coroner departments to balance the County budget.  Now they have added questions on the ballot that need to be better understood.

Liz Chaplin is the only democrat on the Board, and she continues to challenge the Finance Committee on their lack of transparency and playing a shell game with the county budget.  For a better understanding these issues, read these posts on Liz's blog:

·        The Shell Game

·        DuPage County: More Misused Funds

·        DuPage County Referendum Questions – What you need to know

Spin v Truth, County Board Edition - Stop Sterigenics

SPIN V TRUTH:  DuPAGE COUNTY BOARD D3 EDITION  

DEM CANDIDATE FIGHTS FOR CLEAN AIR - STOP STERIGENICS
By Julie Renehan

“Leading from behind” is a term that is used in multiple ways.  The best, most positive meaning describes what DuPage Democrats are doing - influencing others without the mantle of leadership or a majority, to create positive change in our communities. Candidates and active citizens are ​acting​ on issues we find integral to our community, and then our opponents ​finally​ decide to react. Without challenges up and down the ballot, I’m not sure we would see the same movement from our sitting politicians in the other party...even when it comes to emission of a known cancer-causing gas as is the case in Willowbrook with the Sterigenics facility.

I became vocal on twitter calling for the EPA and WIllowbrook mayor to shut down Sterigenics,. and Liz Chaplin immediately called for the ban of Ethylene Oxide soon after an August U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Agency for Toxic Substances & Disease Registry issued a report flagging an area around Willowbrook as posing a public health hazard.  A few days later a County Board member essentially said people mobilizing is better than politicians talking - whatever that means. (I guess it means no action but get pictures taken in front of a protest and make a mailer.) 

The next week I stood with other candidates including Tom Chlystek, Bridget Fitzgerald and Sean Casten calling for strengthened measures to control the contaminant and protect residents, and on my blog (http://www.julierenehan.info/) I urged the DuPage County Health Department to ​do the job they are tasked with ​- to “respond to public health threats.” Just this week, with much fanfare, the Board issued a non-binding resolution (that did not shut down operations or change any circumstance) and one member is on record saying he is “leading the effort to hold Sterigenics accountable.”  Not true, but if we all work together, that is some sort of progress - late and self-serving - but if it moves the needle, o.k.. Liz and I will keep at it, leading from behind, pushing crucial issues. 

Irfan Ibrahim did it at Waterfall Glen, stopping a trucking warehouse; Linda Davenport did it on the Circuit Court, pressuring for a diverse judge appointment; and Liz Chaplin, myself and others are doing it with Sterigenics. When we are elected, we will act on the first instance - we already are.

Spin v Truth, Forest Preserve District Edition

SPIN V TRUTH: FOREST PRESERVE DISTRICT EDITION

DEM FOREST PRESERVE CANDIDATES FACE REPUBLICAN DIRTY TRICKS  WHY?
By Daniel Hebreard, candidate for Forest Preserve Board President
     and Irfan Ibrahim, candidate for Forest Preserve Board District 3

The 2018 primary had a near full ballot of Democratic candidates for the local elections in DuPage including County Board Chair, all of the District seats, Sheriff, Clerk, Judges and of course, the Forest Preserve Board.  Out of all of these candidates, only the Forest Preserve Board candidates were challenged.  Their fate would be decided by an elections panel, set up to ensure that all candidates followed and were complying with the rules to protect the public.  Why is that, do you suppose?

Amazingly, two local Republicans had filed complaints against us.  Not only did these community members file complaints, someone had hired the same expensive attorney to represent both complainants and keep the Democrats off of the ballot.  Who could that be?

For Irfan, all of the months of hard work obtaining double the signatures needed could be for naught as he was representing himself with the help of DuPage Democratic Chair Robert Peickert.  Thankfully, he would have an initial hearing and the county would verify enough signatures to throw out the complaint.  Irfan Ibrahim would stay on the ballot and continue his campaign, raising awareness about keeping “Public Lands in Public Hands”.

Daniel, with a large amount of grassroots support, also had double the petition signatures required, with over 2000.  In Daniel’s case, however, the complaint was not about faulty signatures. Instead, it was alleged that those who signed his petitions were confused by Daniel’s use of “Forest Preserve President” as the position sought, even though that was the language recommended on the election commission website. The contention was that the proper term should have been “Forest Preserve District President” and, therefore, everyone who signed the petition was confused about the position he was seeking. There is only one Forest Preserve in all of DuPage County.  Could they really all have been confused? 

Apparently the Forest Preserve Board, made up of all Republicans, was not happy to be challenged - preferring that the voters have no options on the November ballot.  Daniel was lucky enough to have made a powerful friend in Jeff Jacobson, candidate for Circuit Court Judge in DuPage.  Jeff would represent him, guiding him through the challenges.  The Republicans actually planted people to sign Daniel’s petition in hopes they could challenge him.  Some came forward to sign affidavits that they were indeed confused as to what office he was seeking.  The election board was unmoved and eventually ruled in favor of Daniel.  Nobody was confused.  Would this be the end?

Of course not. Daniel had the audacity to challenge a multi-millionaire.  The case would go to Circuit Court and eventually even to Appellate Court where Daniel would again prevail with the assistance of Jeff Jacobson and the aid of the DuPage Democratic Party.  But why such a big challenge to Irfan and Dan?  Why the fear of being challenged on the ballot? 

The goal of an election should be to have open debate about the issues.  Is it right that the Forest Preserve Board receives full-time salaries and benefits for their whole families for meeting an hour or two a week?  They don’t have offices, they don’t make laws, and the largest responsibility is to ensure the finances are in order.  Why do people have to park all over the streets at Waterfall Glen?  Isn’t there money to add parking and improve amenities?  The current Forest Preserve Board found nearly $17 million to improve the golf course with another $12-15 million planned for a clubhouse there.  They had the time to give away 10 acres to the Village of Winfield to assist in a business deal.  Those are the deals we know about.  What don’t we know?  These are the issues that will only be discussed when incumbents are challenged in open elections.

Spin v Truth, DuPage County Sheriff Edition

SPIN V TRUTH:   DuPAGE COUNTY SHERIFF EDITION
 By Greg Whalen

The use of canine teams in law enforcement is an invaluable tool that can help locate a missing person, passively detect explosives, locate fleeing, violent felons and detect illegal drugs concealed in vehicles and buildings. While canines can be an extraordinary law enforcement tool, there is a cost associated with employing canines within an agency.  During the primary, my opponent James Mendrick participated in a televised interview for Politics Tonight with Paul Lisnek (https://cltv.com/2018/03/17/decision-2018-dupage-county-sheriff-republican-candidates/). During this interview, Mr. Mendrick said the Sheriff’s Department could purchase a new narcotic drug detection canine for $800.00.  This statement by Mr. Mendrick grossly misled the public as the cost of a new, trained drug detection canine is far more than the $800.00 he stated.  Even if this canine was to be trained in-house, by current sheriff’s deputies or staff, the man hours and associated cost that goes into providing this training must be considered and would far exceed $800.00.

According to the Illinois Law Enforcement Training and Standards Board (ILETSB), all narcotic canines must be trained in accordance with the minimum training standards which are set forth by the training board.  ILETSB provides a list of entities that have met these requirements.  One of the most common entities used in the area is TOPS Kennels.  The cost of a patrol/narcotics canine from TOPS Kennel is $13,200 plus a commitment of 8 weeks for the deputy to complete the final portion of training.  Also included in this cost are the weeks of pre-training with the canine to prepare it for service work prior to its introduction with his/her human partner. In addition to the initial cost of the canine, there are continuing education, food and vet costs that must be factored in.  You must also consider the associated work hours of the deputy, as a canine officer is typically allotted compensable time to care for the canine while at home.  When you consider the above costs, you must be ready to support this investment regardless of whether or not the canine has a successful career detecting drugs that lead to in the seizing of enough assets to possibly help fund the continued and/or future operations of the canine program.

As an elected official and the chief law enforcement officer in the county, it is imperative we be transparent with our intentions and the cost of proposed initiatives.  DuPage County government does not have an unlimited source of funds and we must be responsible with taxpayer funds.  The use of smoke and mirrors to hide or mask overall costs with an extraordinary low up-front cost will only decrease the public’s trust in an agency whose untarnished integrity is of the utmost importance. 

Spin v Truth, DuPage County Clerk Edition

SPIN V TRUTH:   DuPAGE COUNTY CLERK EDITION

DUPAGE COUNTY CLER OFFICE STILL NOT RUNNING ELECTIONS AS PROMISED BY BOARD

By Jean Kaczmarek, Democratic Candidate, DuPage County Clerk

Despite the spin, elections have NOT yet moved to the DuPage County Clerk's office. The move won't take place until 2019. A County Board vote will take place on the consolidation after Jan. 1st. The actual move will *likely* not happen until after the 2019 municipal/consolidated election is certified. The current County Clerk will have zero election administration experience prior to the midterms.

Despite the spin, the current County Clerk is NOT looking forward to moving duties from the Election Commission to the Clerk's office. He has demonstrated no interest in administering elections. He could have been serving as the Chair of the DuPage County Election Commission the past four years, according to the ordinance, but chose not to. In fact, he never attends Election Commission board meetings and was completely unaware of the Election Commission's budget when he presented the 2019 budget before the County Board in August.

Despite the spin, the current county clerk is NOT the beacon of transparency, inclusiveness, democracy and participation. The Republican is ignoring invitations to public forums with me, including the League of Women Voters and Progressives for Change. This was his pattern in 2014, as well.

Despite the spin, it is NOT Dan Cronin who should be credited with the plan to consolidate the Recorder's office with the County Clerk's office. This was the cornerstone of Moon Khan's candidacy for DuPage County Recorder in 2016. This year, I have carried the baton in my campaign for County Clerk. Over 90% of the counties in Illinois have already merged the duties of Recorder with County Clerk's offices. Cronin had the opportunity for years to make this move; instead the power structure was waiting for when the current politically-entrenched Recorder was closer to retirement. Just having opposition in a race pushes our elected officials to do the right thing!

Despite the spin, former DuPage County Election Commission Exec. Dir. Joe Sobecki did NOT want to resign. He was given an ultimatum, a reliable source confirmed. The media reported that "there was no previous indication he was planning to step down." Immediately following the "resignation," an interim executive director was installed without a vote by the Commissioners. Sobecki left a well-paying position with excellent benefits, two years shy of pension eligibility. He is currently job hunting via LinkedIn as "a performance-oriented government Administrator, with expertise in over 30+ elections." 

https://www.linkedin.com/in/josephsobecki

P.S. The Democratic Party has been extremely helpful in recruiting new election judges. Word on the street, we're doing a better job than Republicans. The Democratic Party is taking their civic duties seriously. We still need more judges. Keep up the good work!

Trump Tells the Truth, and the real truth is innocent children are harmed

SPIN V TRUTH:  TRUMP EDITION

TRUMP TELLS THE TRUTH FOR ONCE, AND THE REAL TRUTH IS INNOCENT CHILDREN ARE BEING HARMED.

During an interview on Fox, Trump was asked “How do you think you have done since being in office?”  His response was actually honest.  He said:

“I would give myself an A+.  No other president has done what I have done.”  And that’s where he left his comment.  He’s right.  No other president has broken Trump’s record for the following in their first year of office (or for that matter, their entire terms):

Also, no other president has:

Kidnapped innocent children, separated them from their parents, locked them in cages and among other things, traumatized children and manipulated parents to sign a document that “indicated desire against reunification”.

More than 400 children are still separated from their parents.  PBS reported an update on these children in their September 7 article “More than 400 migrant children remain separated from their parents. Here is what we know.”  The article includes “how the U.S. further categorizes the parents of the 416 children that remain in U.S. custody”:

·        “304 have adults who are currently outside the U.S.

·        199 belong to parents who ‘indicated desire against reunification.’ It should be noted that the ACLU has challenged this supposed ‘desire’ in court, filing personal court documents that say some parents may have been coerced by immigration officials to waive their reunification rights.

·        31 adults had a ‘red flag’ in their background checks

·        9 adults are in federal, state or local custody

·        3 adults had a ‘red flag,’ concerning safety and well-being”

There are so many examples of horrible actions of this president that have harmed so many.  Not to mention his level of lying, partnering with Putin, igniting widespread racial intolerance and having the ability to silence the GOP-controlled Congress, which is the only safety-net we have to a dangerous executive branch.

There is no more important election than NOVEMBER 6, 2018.  GET OUT THE VOTE!