SPIN V TRUTH: 6th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT EDITION
[This
series of Tweets came out shortly after the Casten/Roskam debate in July – but
it is still MUST READ for anyone who missed it.
See also some of Sean’s other writings concerning responsible financial
management of our country: “Bringing
Fairness and Rationality to Our Tax Code” and “We
Need a National Balance Sheet”.
Use the information when you’re canvassing in support of Sean! – ed.]
*******
In my debate with @PeterRoskam earlier this week he told some real
whoppers about taxes and the impact of his tax bill on the district. They are
talking points completely unbuttressed by facts. But facts matter. So here's a
thread...
2/First, he repeated his line that the "average median"
family in #IL06 earns $135K/year. This is wrong in
three really important ways.
3/ (a) The average family in #IL06 earns $125K. (b) The median family in #IL06 earns$97K. (c) "average
median" isn't a thing. https://www.census.gov/mycd/?st=17&cd=06 … #factsmatter #mathisreal
4/ Now since we're asking what impact @PeterRoskam's tax bill has on #IL06, the relevant number is the median, since that's the number that
applies to a typical person in the middle of the income zone in the district.
So $97K is the right number
5/ But since @PeterRoskam's tax bill is overwhelmingly skewed to benefit the wealthy, it's
materially significant that he decided to simply assume that the representative
family in the district is earning $40K more than they actually are.
6/ But it gets worse. @PeterRoskam - like all the GOP shills - uses
the Tax Foundation to do their assessment of of the impact of the tax bill.
They are a hack, right wing group that is (if it's possible) worse at economics
than Peter.
7/ As Nobel prize winner @paulkrugman has pointed out many times. https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/11/21/tax-cuts-growth-and-leprechauns/ … https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/tax-cuts-and-the-trade-deficit/ … https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/10/25/trumps-700-billion-foreign-aid-program/ … (among others)
8/ (BTW - note that third Krugman link where he pointed out that
35% of US equities are owned by foreigners, so giving a tax cut to US corps
sends money out of America. This is the
point I made at the debate which doesn't get nearly enough attention)
9/ Among many problems with the Tax Foundation model is that they
assumed that if you cut taxes for corporates, corps would raise salaries. That
is a ginormous assumption. And dead wrong - real wages are down 1.8% since the
bill was passed.
10/ So @PeterRoskam assumed you'd get a raise from his
tax bill and therefore have more money. It's like assuming your dog is a
leprechaun who can give you his gold. It makes your financial math easier, but
it's completely stupid.
11/ So @PeterRoskam uses a made up math term "average
median" and gives everyone in the district a $40K raise to calculate his
tax savings. Basically, he's saying "5 plus minus 3 equals 19". Total
gobbledegook. But even on his own #newmath, the numbers don't work
12/ Let's go back to the Tax Foundation. Here's their calculator.
Go log in. Enter the "average median leprechaun my pretty pony" #IL06 income of $135K and 2 kids. You get
the $4600 savings he uses.
13/ But as you fill out that form, notice that you have to enter
whether you want to itemize or take the standard deduction. You only have one
choice. THEIR MODEL IS ASSUMING THE SAME APPROACH IN 2017 AND 2018.
14/ This matters because the tax bill doubled the standard
deduction. The family here had an incentive to itemize in 2017, but the tax
foundation model assumes they didn't. e.g., the model assumes you overpaid in
2017, then uses that to calculate your savings in 2018.
15/ Also, notice that the model doesn't allow you to enter your
SALT taxes. #IL06 has the 12 highest SALT tax of any
congressional district in the country. The cap on SALT deductions almost
certainly works to your disadvantage, but that's not included.
16/ So to review: @PeterRoskam's estimated tax savings depend on (a) inflated income, (b)
imaginary math terms, (c) tax models that have been debunked by Nobel prize
winners and (d) assumptions that tax payers are too dumb to itemize in 2017.
17/ All of those things overstate the savings. And while without
having access to all his models, I can't say exactly how much he's overstated
the savings to folks in #IL06. But I'm willing to guess
its close to 100%.
18/ So here's my challenge to @PeterRoskam. Post a spreadsheet with your calculations. Use actual income
data from #IL06. Include SALT. Show your work. Give sufficient detail that we can
check your math. Until then, stop making up numbers. People's wealth is at stake. /fin